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this sounds like a smartass tweet but I'm totally serious you can't win if you lose so learn to not lose most major failure conditions are avoidable with a little bit of foresight, planning, study, etc etc. just analyze failures and don't do/be that
most businesses fail because IME most (more than half of) businesses are started by people who don't do any due diligence, ie using your life savings to start a restaurant without ever having worked in one, or even read about the specifics of the struggles involved
most marriages similarly end in divorce because https://t.co/OkmWXRWmAR
failures are inevitable, but the trick is that you can fail early or fail late. isolate your failures as early as possible. do 100 pitches. you likely won't even get that far https://t.co/of4b9mb8sN
try to fail (intelligently) as much as possible, as cheaply as possible, as early as possible. you learn what's right by eliminating everything that's wrong. generally can do that a lot faster and a lot cheaper than people seem to assume https://t.co/N44oPPYN7V
One of the biggest tells that someone doesnât know what theyâre talking about: glossing over addressing resource constraints, or saying things that imply infinite resources. Effectively everything is resource-constrained, & seasoned practitioners are especially sensitive to this https://t.co/DZi8XbYQqx
thread https://t.co/IJiNbfeFZ0
WHY IS ERGODICITY IMPORTANT? AN EXAMPLE My cousin was born in a mountain village in the French Alps. Like many there, he learned to ski before reading. I am a good skier, but I remember the humiliation when I was 14 and he was 6, seeing him surpass me, swift as a bullet.
you can increase your exposure to luck https://t.co/OqmTWpYNpU
here is a bit of my summary of @pmarca's 2007 blogpost about James Austin's 4 kinds of luck, from his 1978 book Chase, Chance and Creativity 1. blind luck 2. add variability through tinkering 3. add discernment 3. add unique frame of reference https://t.co/VC2iCbu8kk
big part of all of this is solving for distribution https://t.co/7y1afBu9W0
thread on risk https://t.co/5irdnGdMBd
to me, it is risky to not have: - alt models of reality - alt sources of meaning - alt scenes and social graphs to hang out in - alt identities - alt jobs/income sources they don't teach *any* of this in school, & people end up depressed, suicidal, abusive... it's insane to me
buffett talking about once-in-a-century cautionary news stories heâd put up on the walls to remind himself to optimize for survival https://t.co/ZzPZ4T4PGV
âeverything happens if you stay aliveâ - al pacino https://t.co/jMQAEdsXf5
a slightly silly example that does still illustrate the fundamental principle https://t.co/d8EmIIl0qI
do not touch unexploded ammo https://t.co/waQDBTKyX0
do not drink mystery liquid https://t.co/EgbpC9yo5V
do not hang out near flooding bodies of water https://t.co/tQmAuuLVAk