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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• 10 months ago

Flipping between my favorite news media and the prediction markets is an interesting contrast between an institution which keenly wants to not be wrong and an institution which wants to be right.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• 10 months ago

Replying to @patio11

One of these requires actively pessimizing for the use case for this evening, apparently.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• 10 months ago

Replying to @patio11

I feel some amount of empathy: one of these, in the American system, essentially decides the winner.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• 10 months ago

Replying to @patio11

That’s a fun household conversation to have, by the way, if e.g. you have someone close to you who knows nothing about the American political system but thinks that advanced nations can count things pretty reliably.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• 10 months ago

Replying to @patio11

(I have tremendous respect for the U.S. political system, which is capable of simultaneous believing that an election is over but that the important counting work remains unfinished. This is a normal state of affairs for it. Not counting would be very bad; not being over, same.)

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