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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago

Some emotional swings from investing: Saw Chipotle stock quoted at ~$62 today. Gadzooks, I thought. That's only a hair above my entry point in 2004. What the heck went wrong?! Read chart closer: 50:1 stock split earlier this week.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

I, sadly, no longer own material amounts of Chipotle, which was previously my best performing investment inclusive of angel investments. I put about $4k into it total, $2k from Bingo Card Profits, and held almost all of it until 2020, when I sold because pandemic.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

And so, even when you 10X your money, sometimes you have to eat some crow for missing the further 5X.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

(I sold a bit before 2020, to my recollection, because I could no longer justify the absurd portion of our liquid net worth that was specifically Chipotle stock.)

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

As long as I'm telling ancient stories about Chipotle stock, it was once one of the empirical counterexamples to the efficient markets hypothesis. In the 2004-2006ish timeframe, it was a very retail driven stock and relatively heavily shorted by the smart money.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

There existed a second share class, CMG.B, which had a multiple of votes per share but same economic claim as CMG.A, the share class any discount brokerage would give you when you tried to buy Chipotle. CMG.B is strictly more valuable than CMG.A, right. No, 10% discount.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Why discount? Because the people who actually wanted to buy Chipotle were either insufficiently sophisticated to know "share classes" exist in the world, or they were unable to get their existing brokerage account to buy the Bs, and still wanting Chipotle, bought the As.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Why didn't smart money just arb this out? Because it was too expensive to do in sufficient quantity to close. The strategy is "buy B, short A, wait for convergence", but A was heavily shorted both because of this issue and because smart money didn't like Chipotle on fundamentals.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

There were articles in e.g. the WSJ for a year about this anomaly. I read them, concluded "But I *do* like CMG on the fundamentals", and then called my discount brokerage to say "I'm sure you actually have a way I can buy the B share class of one of the most popular stocks."

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Some years later, smart money controlled enough B to convince the company to convert B to A (stripped the extra voting rights in favor of immediately closing out the arb opportunity), and I enjoyed a free 10% kicker to the investment, which was by then already doing well.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• about 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Correcting record: I actually looked at cmg-cost-basis-calculation.txt in Dropbox and it looks like I was off by a few years and a few dollars. Since not particularly sensitive and easier to screenshot than type corrections: https://t.co/wjHk6grEzW

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