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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago

Scaled crime is a result of a business process and it’s a very useful lens to understand how that business functions for the purpose of interdicting it. https://t.co/V6kjpNEzXd

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

This often causes problems for Seeing like a State reasons. The state does not perceive crime to be an output of a business. It can, with immense effort, describe it in that fashion, but it will default to understanding it in concepts it understands like perpetrators/cases/etc.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Which is not intrinsically a *wrong* thing, but it impedes one’s ability to understand what is going on and combat it. Sometimes, it causes important people to straight up deny reality of what is going on, because they’re (ahem) bad at business.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

This is something which is true for lots of crime of interest, which is not all crime. A fairly substantial amount of credit card fraud is conducted by professionals.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

When explaining that to people for whom it is professionally relevant, I would often say “Remember, the adversary has a boss, a budget, performance monitoring, a supplier ecosystem, continuing education, an HR department, etc.” People often believe I’m kidding.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

A lot of successful mitigations for financial crimes begin by sketching out the production functions of the adversary’s business and then attacking their P&L.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

“Example please.” For many forms of fraud, the adversary needs to create or assume identities. This activity of their business requires some combination of labor, savvy, and purchasing things from specialists. All that costs money.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Many successful mitigations focus on forcing adversary to “burn” those identities at a higher rate to extract value, to raise the cost of synthetic identities, to disqualify from being effective generic forms of cheap labor and force the adversary to employ expensive pros, etc.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

For more on this topic, more on financial crime than on stolen bikes, see my previous writing. Example: https://t.co/xukUl1xYvd

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Oh I have an example of a specific mitigation for crime that cannot possibly get me in trouble, happy day. Scaled tax fraud is the result of a business process.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

You might tell a fib on your taxes. Please don’t. But the amount of damage you can do is bounded. A startup specializing in a repeatable method to file fraudulent taxes at scale, perhaps using spurious tax positions or a supply chain to manufacture fraudulent documents, OTOH…

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

One thing the IRS did was starting to assign tax preparers numbers. The biggest single consequence of this is it allows you to cluster tax fraud, which the IRS institutionally perceived as being acts of individual taxpayers, by their preparer.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

And lo, if your business exists specifically to file fraudulent taxes, it is much easier to shut down than merely consequencing a tiny portion of your customer base from last year on a whackamole basis.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

For more on that topic, a magic search word on irs dot gov is “abusive tax structures.” If you spend a few hours of reading about those because you have weird hobbies, you will find that IRS perceives many as being produced industrially by specialists with R&D/marketing/etc depts

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Part of the reason for licensing regimes, btw, isn’t that the licensing teaches you anything or that it makes you more effective or that it makes you more ethical or that it successfully identifies protocriminals before they get the magic piece of paper.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

It’s that you have to put a $X00k piece of paper at risk as the price of admission to the chance of doing the crime. This deters entry and raises the costs of criminal enterprises hiring licensed professionals versus capable, ambitious, intelligent non-licensed criminals.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

A knock-on consequence of this is that, and I am stealing this directly from Dan Davies’ Lying for Money, if you have an accountant willing to go to prison and your crime doesn’t make you filthy rich then you are really, really bad at your job. Crime might not be for you.

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Patrick McKenzie@patio11• over 1 year ago
Replying to @patio11

Seen in this light, licensing regimes hear the critics of licensing regimes that suggest they are exclusionary, cost a lot of money, and teach nothing of value, and say “… And?” The usually don’t say this out loud.

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