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1. congress mad abt the administration's iran policy archive: https://t.co/XAGh9YU5p4 notable as a barometer of domestic political constraints and pressures on biden. not that congress is in a position to do anything rn also lol turkey never change https://t.co/VmwSFFx0sY https://t.co/czEvFxK3k7
2. egypt is absolutely not going to be accepting refugees under any circumstances https://t.co/VvChZCadTk https://t.co/d3ai7wnlYF
if only china were a more reasonable international actor this problem could be easily resolved https://t.co/S7zqdXBQX0
3. well this is going to be an awful discourse whose fault is it? idk. i doubt it was deliberate, either way. my guess is that a hamas fuckup is way more likely than an israel fuckup but i don't have time to dig into it seriously https://t.co/8f2ZrCStCD https://t.co/n3rxcZkr8W
the IDF report does seem to be correct about a Hamas rocket barrage, reported as "massive," that occurred around the time when the hospital was hit https://t.co/RIWExZcivW
incidentally yeah Hamas has also been firing rockets at israel, completely indiscriminately they fired *5000* on 10/7, coincident with the the ground attack has anyone accused hamas of committing such war crimes and asked them to stop. lol lmao https://t.co/n4OWihsuuA
i leave it to the reader to ponder the relative ethics of - israeli airstrikes not intended to kill civilians but which nevertheless have that effect, and - hamas rocket attacks that are intended to kill civilians but which mostly fail owing to hamas' incompetence
https://t.co/Gtg7R0agWV https://t.co/COSMOLZxNi
more i can't independently evaluate but given the straightforwardness and specificity of the arguments i'd guess this is probably (70%? idk) reliable https://t.co/HPONPNzLQk https://t.co/eS7RW7lR2M
more from account analyzing the video above regarding, i think, the timing of the attack from what seems like probably a telegram group google translation here the future is wild https://t.co/w838797L5D https://t.co/ngcBtGUljg
comment elsewhere from π haven't seen any clear video of the explosion but it would be interesting to see whether there were any secondary explosions https://t.co/kCBgODTRMf
hard to believe the newspaper that employed walter duranty would ever come to this https://t.co/A0urItzjWb
gmafb https://t.co/VQZ6u5vKZm
occasional reminder https://t.co/Zskd7gVqU7
Thorough OSTINT-style review of evidence from a highly reputable account. Assessment: Hamas/PIJ rocket engine explodes midair, warhead falls on or near hospital and detonates on impact. I'd guess the story here is substantially correct (say, 85%). https://t.co/vhPsaTac5s
https://t.co/NHBvxakXXn https://t.co/KNE1yvBdhb
i am not aware of any time @GeoConfirmed has botched things although i imagine they must have erred at some point given their volume im just neurotic about assigning high probabilities to things i dont understand personally make of that what you will https://t.co/Kg4oHaiXDd
Further discussion with @it_is_fareed On reflection it seems like ok, the geoconfirmation is solid, but do we actually know that the rocket that somehow failed caused the hospital explosion? Maybe that's not so clear? But then you have to ask: all right, so a rocket fails or is hit and then five or six seconds later there is a giant explosion underneath where the rocket was hit. What are the odds that it just happened to be ANOTHER rocket? So. (1) Guy quoted upthread has a theory that it was a "heat seeking missile" fired at rocket launchers by israel that locked onto the hospital but I'm FAIRLY confident that's not how interceptors work. I'm pretty sure they use radar or at least use it in conjunction with infrared, which would probably(?) mitigate the likelihood of hitting the ground. https://t.co/j4bwhMSyyn And I haven't seen any other reports of "oops we hit a building" with interceptors. This doesn't mean it can't happen but it does make me more skeptical. Finally, these rockets seem like they'd only just been fired afaict, which makes me think it's less likely that it was an interceptor on account of those take time to travel. Further, from Iron Dome videos i've seen I have the vague impression they tend to intercept somewhat far from the initial launch site. If all of this feels extremely fuzzy and uncertain to you: correct, i don't know what i'm talking about. (2) Maybe it was some kind of counterbattery attack by Israel that misfired: they saw the launches and struck out at the site of the launch with something other than an interceptor. Do these exist? Perhaps! I have no idea, but let's entertain it; it's not implausible. Now you have to consider two explanations for the hospital: - Israel's counterbattery is occasionally unreliable - Hamas/PJI/whatever was firing rockets from the hospital The first seems like a rare but not crazy event; the second seems plausible but now there are more questions raised. (3) Another possibility: maybe another Hamas rocket misfired or was badly aimed. If the rocket failure rate is 30-40% as claimed, sure, this isn't crazy; it was a large barrage. Overall these things seem un-parsimonious to me and I think the single missile failure remains the most likely story. But of course I can't rule them out on account of que sçay-je. https://t.co/tsbK6PUwoK
4. anyway enough of that. meanwhile https://t.co/RMvGXUXhkC
5. these guys had posted or RT'd the deleted video i removed earlier mildly irritating although theyre certainly not any worse than the gray lady or any of our other bastions of journalism https://t.co/1ncAK7q7kh
6. people seem to be losing their minds in the near east traditionally your not supposed to let this happen to embassies this is still a little murky ofc but seen snippets of news stories about this similar(?) situation in jordan https://t.co/GI6RsA7xBT
al-jazeera is not helping forget it jake near east muslim world is just living in a different reality https://t.co/KxVWTdy6fq
iran's foreign ministry is making threats i make light of them but really if they wanted shit to pop off, and it seems as if quite a few people really want shit to pop off, this is probably the time to do something incredibly stupid https://t.co/RlxNObD4gR
for the most part people dont just commit violence even if they _want_ to they need to hype themselves up first, and form for themselves a narrative wherein that violence is somehow justified, no matter how pretextually that may be what we're seeing here not great
heres an old gallery of photos from august 1914 https://t.co/ho0WkKGkxu people were really stoked perhaps there was something cathartic about heading off into what they imagined was coming next https://t.co/vPlUq7lDzy
when ernest shackleford reached safety, in may of 1916, from his doomed attempt to cross antarctica, he had not spoken to anyone beyond his crew since december of 1914 he immediately asked after the war he had left behind his essay ends here. i wonder how he took the news https://t.co/SBvK0ep53w
7. consider the relationship between actors and events under ordinary circumstances, one might imagine actors--here i mean states and others with power, but this model may generalize--each responding to actions taken by the other predictably, or predictably within bounds
under some circumstances, a live actor may take actions that wrong-foot another, and take the opportunity of initiative for a series of actions to which the other can only react this is a state of relative instability compared to the former case and a time of danger
today i see a third state of affairs my expectation is very much that hamas blew up its own hospital, or at an outside chance, it was struck by an errant israeli missile i am highly skeptical that either side did this deliberately
and yet this freak disaster is dominating everything. planned actions by all actors are overturned, delicate diplomacy in shreds, alliances fraying _everyone_ is reacting to events outside their careful plans do you understand? no one is in control
netanyahu, by recent accounts, is hesitating and anxious; a man of low cunning and endless schemes, but no steel if so, and it does seem to be so, he is not the kind of leader to steer a nation through a crisis of any magnitude
biden has never been a man who could meet this kind of challenge, an exemplar of mediocrity notable at his best. today he is in his dotage his staff is doing what staffs do but they're leftover c-stringers from the obama administration and they have no vision to guide them
bibi has no plan. biden's plan was to threaten force and to beg and bribe in backchannels to give bibi time to come up with a plan, which he clearly hasn't. they are dead actors and now time has caught up with them and initiative has passed from their hands into Fortuna's own
8. this doesnt seem obviously compelling to me if israel had "struck" the hospital in some meaningful sense i somewhat expect that there would be more than "partial damage to two floors" seems more likely they hit something next to it? idk https://t.co/0cCyeGsnqz
9. israel put out a forensic video wait a sec is there actually any video of the damage was this just a fucking parking lot fire will investigate https://t.co/0uODTno9hG
i am still looking but i have not seen a single image of damage to the building its just people crying and injured which yes pathos but wheres the building that was leveled nyt has video of the parking lot fire but ????????? https://t.co/Akr8NYT7xn
hm well surely there will be an investigation by impartial and capable actors and we'll get to the bottom of this https://t.co/7TRNeIiVf8
no good image of the building itself but https://t.co/ojvm3YJWyh
the best possible world to me is the one where this is completely fabricated not only would that mean that hundreds of people did not in fact die it would mean that every single fucking one of our idiot media institutions publicly eats shit https://t.co/nr3BS08mlS
guys i have to confess i fucked up in my analysis because the incredibly simple explanation of "actually there was not a massive bomb detonation at a hospital that killed hundreds" did not even cross my mind im not sure this is true but boy am i adjusting my priors to include it
here are some headlines just screencapped for your reference CNN is already hedging https://t.co/GYPTRotUha
what I'm curious about is, *can* the people losing their shit even walk it back at this point? is it even remotely possible? can the entire fucking world say "ha ha oops my bad guess i shouldnt have taken the savages who just killed over a thousand ppl at their word lololol"
this in particular is infuriating, though. it's shameful. if I'm ever accused of a heinous crime and your response is "uh he's denying it" rather than "i cant believe he'd do that" look. just throw me to the wolves. our friendship is nothing https://t.co/g5NteEaMEs
video sure looks like a fuel fire in a goddamn parking lot to me https://t.co/5sA5Ibb3Fr
wonder if shes gonna eat shit or naw https://t.co/nYPcVgrtnM
is it possible to drop a community note on several million tweets simultaneously pls advise @elonmusk https://t.co/IDayQZBbDb
israel dropped the recording im in no position to evaluate it https://t.co/i1VWhH1Z6V
this is our life now https://t.co/MdR8hZQTrH
"well nevertheless" https://t.co/CChyf1ewDe
im screencapping this bad boy drop the finds of your enemies being insanely wrong and massively condescending here for future reference and for everyone's enjoyment https://t.co/t3WfGe6ZKy
biden says the "other team" seems to have been responsible but hasn't said "lol 500 deaths gmafb" wonder if this gives media an opportunity to retract https://t.co/IKiBcFIQ3G
Wonder what portion of accounts and media will continue to drive this narrative of 500 dead from a deliberate attack with no retraction until it just stops catching, at which point they'll move on.For swarms of low-follower accounts, no retraction is obvious. For major media... I don't see a retraction from Al Jazeera, just a change in narrative. They've only drifted so far over the last hours. The actual report still hammers the same "500 murdered by Israel" point. And many of the Free Palestine posters I've seen continue hammering the points of doubt, discredited videos, "HAMAS ONLY USES QASSAMS", JUST LIKE THE 40 BABIES HUH, etc.I'm curious to see who ends up retracting anything, but it genuinely is lovely to see a moment of baldfaced failure in the monoculture media apparatus so completely, totally visible.I expect far more rationalizing than apology, and I expect none of the countries intensifying their condemnations of Israel to issue an apology, only to remain mum and continue hammering at criticism as it's prudent for them to do so.
@eigenrobot Or if the UK owned their mistakes https://t.co/uR5KJSscI7
@eigenrobot I thought it was profound that Pikachu went up against Raichu, who was trained by a Lieutenant. According to Bulbapedia, "As a member of the army, Surge was a strict CO, and was rather cautious. He was a pilot as well, and used Electric-type PokΓ©mon to power his planes"